Climate change is already affecting our weather, native ecosystems, mahinga kai, food production, health, biosecurity and infrastructure.
In Christchurch and Banks Peninsula, our summers will become hotter, dryer and longer, and our winters shorter and milder. We are likely to experience more extreme rain, wind, fire and flooding.
Some areas will become more prone to drought while our low-lying coastal areas will be more exposed to tidal flooding.
Climate change will continue to affect our lives significantly and the world our children and grandchildren inherit will be vastly different to the world we live in today.
Our average temperature will rise from 0.5°C to 1.5°C by 2040, and 3.0°C by 2090.
Our average maximum temperature will rise by 3 to 40C by 2090.
Our average minimum temperature will rise by 1 to 20C by 2090.
Our number of days over 25°C will increase:
Our number of frosts will decrease:
Our seasonal temperature will change – particularly in autumn when summer will extend.
Average rainfall will not change much, but summer and autumn will be drier with 5 to 15 per cent less summer rainfall for Banks Peninsula.
Winters will be wetter - up to 10 per cent more rainfall.
There will be long dry periods with more intense, more frequent drought and more frequent and more extreme rainfall events.
Levels are projected to rise over time:
Groundwater will be closer to the surface (more shallow).
More frequent and intense flooding and erosion from storm surges.
Groundwater will become salty. Saltwater will move further upstream in rivers.
The ocean will become more acidic
Seawater will be warmer
There will be marine heatwaves
Wind speeds may increase up to 5% by 2100.
Note: Predictions are comparisons to the 1986 to 2005 mean baseline and assume that greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase at current rates based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios.
Information is sourced from the NIWA report prepared for Environment Canterbury, Climate Change Projections for the Canterbury Region(external link) published in February 2020.