This is a total increase of just over 35,000 households. Growth is projected to be around 10,000 households between 2013 and 2018, an average of 2000 households per year. This decreases to around 7000 additional households for each five year period between 2018 and 2028 (an average of 1400 households per year). After 2028, this further decreases to 5100 for each five year period to 2038 (average annual household growth of 1020). For the 25 year period to 2038, the annual average growth rate for Christchurch is expected to be 0.9%, which is slightly less than the annual average growth rate for New Zealand of 1.1%.
The number of households could be as high as 196,800 or as low as 151,300 by 2038, depending on differing assumptions about fertility, mortality, migration and living arrangement types.
Waimakariri and Selwyn districts
The surrounding districts of Selwyn and Waimakariri are expected to have the highest and third highest growth in households in New Zealand, with annual average growth rates of 2.7% and 1.8% respectively.
Waimakariri is expected to grow by 10,900 households over the next 25 year to 30,500. Selwyn is expected to grow by 14,800 over the same period to 30,600. The combined growth of these two districts (26,600) is equivalent to 73% of the household growth in Christchurch City and makes up 42% of the overall growth in the three districts that make up Greater Christchurch.